Macro Institute
Macro Institute
Crises | Monetary Policy | Geopolitics | Market Behavior

Research Focus

Our mission is to provide research insights on the global macro environment by focusing on four primary areas:  financial crises, monetary policy, geopolitics and financial market behavior. 

Naturally, many of these areas are related and impact one another to some degree in the financial markets.

Our Research Links 

The Socio-Political Theory of Financial Crises (SPTC)©

Crises are difficult to predict with the most recent and notable example being the failure of the economic profession to see the 2007-2008 Credit Crunch. Why? The quantitative approach to financial crises depends on one key assumption – the comparability of financial crises. Thus, we should ask: how comparable are crises? An important consideration is the context – social, political and institutional. Next, if financial crises are comparable to a certain extent, then we should be able to make predictions. This naturally leads one to ask: how predictable are crises? Not only did this approach fail to predict crises, but an understanding and explanation of crises was also lacking. In short, a comprehensive theory of financial crises was needed to account for context and thus improve our understanding and explanation of financial crises.

The result was the development of The Socio-Political Theory of Crises. The social, political and institutional context, which is left out in quantitative approaches, was now at the core of this theory. This is a process-oriented theory with a focus on understanding and explaining crises. It is also multi-disciplinary in scope. To this end, crises proceed through four steps: Social, Trigger, Disruption and Psychological. Three case studies on financial crises were conducted to test the theory and to gain further insights.

Additional Research

Book - Transparency 'Footprints' of Central Banks 

Journal of Socio-Economics 
​Article on Central Bank Transparency

MPRA Paper: Compatibility and Predictability of Financial Crises